MITRE urges readiness for emergence of quantum decryption

MITRE has released a new report predicting that quantum computers will likely not be able to break high-security encryption for decades while warning that the U.S. government must act as soon as possible to keep sensitive data safe from attacks that use this technology, according to Quantum Insider.

Researchers at MITRE estimated that no quantum computer capable of decrypting RSA-2048 encryption, currently in use for protecting classified information, will exist until at least 2055 to 2060 unless unexpected breakthroughs occur. However, adversaries, particularly China, are already preparing for a future where quantum decryption is feasible. China’s advancements in quantum communication and cryptographic key distribution could give it an edge in quantum computing, potentially allowing it to decrypt sensitive intelligence in the future. While quantum progress is typically measured using IBM’s quantum volume metric, some experts believe advances in error correction could accelerate development, making quantum decryption possible by 2035. MITRE emphasized that despite the timeline, U.S. agencies must begin transitioning to post-quantum cryptography as early as now to prevent future security breaches. The report urged investments in quantum research, supply chain security, and intelligence monitoring to maintain U.S. leadership. The intelligence community must also track adversarial programs to avoid being caught unawares by a breakthrough.